editor's blog
Subscribe Now

Buckle your seat belts: the semi market could be about to explode.

At the Future Horizons Semiconductor Industry Forecast on January 20th Malcolm Penn was in one of his classic ebullient modes. His message was “It is time to prepare for one of the strongest (and longest) upswings in chip industry history.”

Firstly, the context: this time last year Penn predicted semi sales would grow by  8%, with the most pessimistic case being only 4% and the most optimistic 14%. In fact, with December still to be finalised, it looks like 9.9% for the year.

For 2015 his target is 8.5% growth, with sales of $364.183 billion ($1 billion day). However if we do see a recovery things will be very different. Penn’s analysis of the last three upturns showed that the first four quarters of an upturn typically experience growth of around 30%.

However there is not only no spare manufacturing capacity at advanced nodes, TSMC sold out last year, but there is little capacity being built. And even if you start building today, it will be a least a year before you have chips. There is also virtually no inventory being held, all the way from wafers to finished goods. This means that growth will come from price increases as customers compete for the limited supply of chips. The owners of the advanced fabs, mainly TSMC, will be doing well financially.

So while I have been bewailing the lack of excitement in 2014, in one area, if Penn is right, 2015 could become very exciting.

Leave a Reply

featured blogs
Jan 22, 2021
Amidst an ongoing worldwide pandemic, Samtec continues to connect with our communities. As a digital technology company, we understand the challenges and how uncertain times have been for everyone. In early 2020, Samtec Cares suspended its normal grant cycle and concentrated ...
Jan 22, 2021
I was recently introduced to the concept of a tray that quickly and easily attaches to your car'€™s steering wheel (not while you are driving, of course). What a good idea!...
Jan 22, 2021
This is my second post about this year's CES. The first was Consumer Electronics Show 2021: GM, Intel . AMD The second day of CES opened with Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, presenting. AMD announced new... [[ Click on the title to access the full blog on the Cadence Community...
Jan 20, 2021
Explore how EDA tools & proven IP accelerate the automotive design process and ensure compliance with Automotive Safety Integrity Levels & ISO requirements. The post How EDA Tools and IP Support Automotive Functional Safety Compliance appeared first on From Silicon...

featured paper

Speeding Up Large-Scale EM Simulation of ICs Without Compromising Accuracy

Sponsored by Cadence Design Systems

With growing on-chip RF content, electromagnetic (EM) simulation of passives is critical — from selecting the right RF design candidates to detecting parasitic coupling. Being on-chip, accurate EM analysis requires a tie in to the process technology with process design kits (PDKs) and foundry-certified EM simulation technology. Anything short of that could compromise the RFIC’s functionality. Learn how to get the highest-in-class accuracy and 10X faster analysis.

Click here to download the whitepaper

Featured Chalk Talk

Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) Technology

Sponsored by Mouser Electronics and Texas Instruments

In industrial applications, crystals are not ideal for generating clock signal timing. They take up valuable PCB real-estate, and aren’t stable in harsh thermal and vibration environments. In this episode of Chalk Talk, Amelia Dalton chats with Nick Smith from Texas Instruments about bulk acoustic wave (BAW) technology that offers an attractive alternative to crystals.

More information about Texas Instruments Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) Technology