editor's blog
Subscribe Now

Buckle your seat belts: the semi market could be about to explode.

At the Future Horizons Semiconductor Industry Forecast on January 20th Malcolm Penn was in one of his classic ebullient modes. His message was “It is time to prepare for one of the strongest (and longest) upswings in chip industry history.”

Firstly, the context: this time last year Penn predicted semi sales would grow by  8%, with the most pessimistic case being only 4% and the most optimistic 14%. In fact, with December still to be finalised, it looks like 9.9% for the year.

For 2015 his target is 8.5% growth, with sales of $364.183 billion ($1 billion day). However if we do see a recovery things will be very different. Penn’s analysis of the last three upturns showed that the first four quarters of an upturn typically experience growth of around 30%.

However there is not only no spare manufacturing capacity at advanced nodes, TSMC sold out last year, but there is little capacity being built. And even if you start building today, it will be a least a year before you have chips. There is also virtually no inventory being held, all the way from wafers to finished goods. This means that growth will come from price increases as customers compete for the limited supply of chips. The owners of the advanced fabs, mainly TSMC, will be doing well financially.

So while I have been bewailing the lack of excitement in 2014, in one area, if Penn is right, 2015 could become very exciting.

Leave a Reply

featured blogs
May 20, 2019
At the 2019 International Symposium of Physical Design, the conference honored Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli with a lifetime achievement award. Alberto was one of the cofounders of SDA Systems, the... [[ Click on the title to access the full blog on the Cadence Community s...
May 17, 2019
The Design Automation Conference (DAC) is the premier conference for automated electronics design and verification technology. For 2019, DAC returns to sunny Las Vegas, Nevada at the Las Vegas Convention Center from June 2-5, 2019. We'€™ve packed each day full of exciting ...
May 17, 2019
In the days of old we looked into the “green” for guidance on how much further down into the world of miniaturization we could go. What is the green you ask? I am talking about the substrate that has served us all well for many years; the PCB. We are at a crossroa...
Jan 25, 2019
Let'€™s face it: We'€™re addicted to SRAM. It'€™s big, it'€™s power-hungry, but it'€™s fast. And no matter how much we complain about it, we still use it. Because we don'€™t have anything better in the mainstream yet. We'€™ve looked at attempts to improve conven...