In recent work, “we found evidence that data on Google searches for financially related words and views of financially related pages on Wikipedia could have provided early warning signs of stock market moves,” says Suzy Moat, a data scientist at the University of Warwick. “However, the financial markets constitute a large, complex system, which influences and is influenced by many different aspects of modern society. We therefore wondered if searches for other topics might also provide insight into subsequent stock market moves.”
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The scientists found increases in Google searches related to business were not the only ones that preceded stock market stumbles a week in advance: “We also found a similar relationship for groups of words relating to politics,” says Chester Curme, a data scientist at Boston University who collaborated with Moat. They suggest rises in searches for politics and business may constitute early signs of concern about the state of society or the economy, which might lead to a reduction of confidence in the value of stocks.
via IEEE Spectrum
Image: Randi Klett
